Expert: U.S. Negotiations With Lukashenko Have Reached An Impasse; It's Time To Reimpose Sanctions

• 19.09.2026, 16:00

We need to make significant changes to our approach.

U.S. President’s Special Envoy John Cole, upon his return from Belarus and the release of 25 political prisoners out of an expected 200, held meetings in Lithuania and Latvia. He said he discussed easing sanctions and the transit of Belarusian potash through Lithuania and Latvia to the U.S., according to "Belsat".

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda reminded him that in Belarus, “despite humanitarian gestures, the overall security situation remains unchanged.” And Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs stated outright: “Latvia considers it necessary to maintain political and sanctions pressure and supports the expansion and strengthening of European Union sanctions.”

The U.S. cannot lift EU sanctions against Lukashenko

Can Lithuania and Latvia lift or circumvent sanctions imposed by the entire European Union? Can the U.S. persuade the entire European Union to ease sanctions? Rygor Nizhnikov, a senior research fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs , told “Belsat”: this is impossible, and as for a single EU country deviating from the sanctions, it is even dangerous.

“If any single country starts blocking these sanctions within the European Union, it will undermine the entire sanctions policy and, in a sense, even the EU’s Eastern policy. “This wouldn’t just be shooting ourselves in the foot—it would be a catastrophe for the European Union,” said Nizhnikov.

“That’s why no one will go down that path for the Americans’ sake without understanding why,” he noted. “Because the Americans aren’t offering anything in return. And everyone understands that once such a decision is made, there will be no progress—only a step backward.

There will be an even bigger crisis in Belarus-EU relations. And even in EU-Russia relations. After all, do you see what kind of situation we’re facing now?”
If the European Union agrees, there will be a shift in focus, Nizhnikov believes. For the European Union, the key issue right now is Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in which Belarus acted as a co-aggressor. The domestic political situation in Belarus is also important to the European Union. With Cole’s help, Lukashenko is ensuring that negotiations and sanctions are viewed through a humanitarian lens—the rescue of political prisoners.

“Of course, if Lukashenko succeeds in getting the European Union to revise its foreign policy, it will be a disaster for Europe, because it will gain nothing,” said Nizhnikov, adding:
“Resolving these humanitarian issues will, on the whole, only make the situation worse,” he noted. “After all, Lukashenko will realize that he needs to apply even more pressure to extract more from Europe and the Americans. And the Russians will immediately join in as well.

Cole is making a fool of himself; the Americans are making fools of themselves. You can’t approach such issues like an amateur! Now he’s making statements suggesting they didn’t know how things work inside the country. This simply shows the incompetence of this administration, since he’s coming out with such explanations for why something didn’t work out there.

In general, it’s very painful to watch—how Lukashenko is mocking the Americans. The way he’s behaving now, the way he received Cole, how he’s essentially twisting their arms. “If you’re the Vatican, you can go around, as Cole does, and make requests. Because you’re the Vatican—you’re coming on behalf of the Pope. But if you’re America, you’re just making a fool of yourself,” Nizhnikov believes.

““Unfortunately, we’ve reached a point where not only Lukashenko, but also Iran, and in a sense North Korea and so on—everyone is simply ceasing to take the Americans seriously because of this administration’s policies,” the expert said.

Among other things, Alexander Lukashenko demanded that the U.S. return $43–44 million frozen in Citibank. The White House may well be able to achieve this, Nizhnikov conceded. He predicted that Lukashenko might release, “roughly speaking, another 10 people” in return—and continue the negotiations.

These negotiations give Lukashenko “additional clout,” Nizhnikov noted. The attitude toward someone with whom the U.S. is talking is not the same as toward someone visited only by Russian governors and the “Taliban.” And Cole, in Nizhnikov’s view, seems personally interested in continuing the negotiations. Therefore, Nizhnikov believes, they will continue, though they won’t yield significant results:

“But the process itself is at an impasse!” the expert said. “Fortunately, the Americans understand that agreeing to Lukashenko’s terms in full would be a disgrace; it would simply be a mockery of common sense. They simply cannot agree to what Lukashenko wants. And Lukashenko is only willing to bargain with political prisoners and make various minor concessions. He’ll never do what Europe and the Americans want.
That’s why we’re at an impasse. The negotiations will continue until the Americans realize that continuing to bang their heads against a wall in this way is becoming an exclusively negative process for them.

If the Americans don’t learn from their mistakes, Lukashenko will continue to behave exactly this way. And that will simply be a mockery—first and foremost of the people, who have become nothing more than commodities. And most importantly, it erodes and destroys not only U.S. policy toward Belarus, but Western policy in general.”

On September 15, Lukashenko released and deported 25 political prisoners; at least 900 remain behind bars. The United States lifted sanctions against “Lakokraska” and “Bellesbumprom.” Democratic forces had expected the release of at least 200 people, and the relatives of some political prisoners were told the day before to come pick them up—but they were never released.

Nizhnikov, however, believes that negotiations in their current format should not continue—the approach needs to be significantly changed:

“The only thing the Americans need to do now in response to Lukashenko’s behavior is to apply pressure again and reimpose sanctions. To at least return the situation to the state it was in at the beginning of 2025 or the end of 2024, when Lukashenko himself was knocking on doors and begging to be allowed to talk, and insisting on concessions. Not like now, when the Americans are the ones begging, not Lukashenko.”

“That is exactly what the U.S. administration should be doing. Not trying to figure out how to get Lukashenko to return $40 million,” Nizhnikov believes.

Lukashenko might respond to this by reversing his policy: not letting people go, but imprisoning them. Wouldn’t such a reversal worsen the situation in Belarus? Nizhnikov argues:

“This is the false choice that Lukashenko is presenting. He’s already imprisoning people anyway. But at least this way, he’ll understand the consequences of imprisoning people.

What he’s achieved with the Americans will simply be taken away from him. And he needs that. He pretends he doesn’t, but he does—even if only on a small scale.”

Nizhnikov believes that the United States needs to return to the policy that brought Lukashenko to the negotiating table, and move away from a line that allows him to demand—much like North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un—that others come to him and beg for concessions. This is especially true now, when hybrid attacks on Lithuania and Latvia are at their peak, and Lukashenko is pressuring Cole to talk to them about easing sanctions.