Svitan Described A Possible Scenario For A Russian Attack Against NATO
- 27.09.2026, 14:13
A military expert identified three or four stages of escalation.
In the event of an attempt to attack NATO countries, Russia would most likely start not with ballistic or cruise missiles, but with drones, gradually testing the Alliance’s response. This view was expressed in an interview “Glavred” by military expert, flight instructor, and reserve colonel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Roman Svitán.
In his assessment, Moscow is unlikely to decide to launch a large-scale missile attack right away. The expert believes that any potential escalation could occur gradually, allowing the Russian leadership to assess the reaction of European countries at each subsequent stage.
“It will definitely start with drones,” Svitán said.
Russia may attempt to use refurbished Ukrainian drones
The expert suggested that, in the initial phase, Russia could theoretically attempt to use even Ukrainian-made drones that had previously been launched against Russian targets.
According to Svitan, Russian specialists are attempting to repair some of the Ukrainian drones that either missed their targets or were damaged.
“I wouldn’t even rule out the possibility of using Ukrainian-made drones. We send hundreds of drones into Russia every day. The Russians are trying to repair some of them and get them back in the air. They could use such drones against NATO countries,” he believes.
This is the expert’s own assumption. The comment cited above provides no evidence that Russia is currently preparing such an operation against NATO member states.
According to Svitana, the use of such drones could allow Moscow to assess NATO’s reaction time and the operational algorithms of its air defense systems.
After that, he believes, Russia could move on to using its own strike drones.
Svitán identified the next possible stage
If the initial provocations do not elicit a sufficient response, the next stage, according to the expert’s forecast, could be a further escalation in the intensity of the attacks.
“The Russians may do this on a massive scale: observe the reaction, study the operational pattern. After that, they’ll decide to launch strikes using their own drones—which they’re already using to attack Ukraine—and then they might resort to missiles,” Svitán said.
However, he does not expect Russia to immediately resort to the massive use of ballistic weapons.
“There likely won’t be an immediate large-scale ballistic strike. They will proceed step by step: in three or four waves, gradually testing the reaction,” the expert predicted.
Thus, according to him, a potential Russian escalation could be based on a gradual escalation of tensions—from isolated or mass drone launches to the use of more serious weaponry.
What Could Stop Further Escalation
Svitán believes that the reaction of European countries will be the decisive factor in such a scenario. In his view, the sooner any potential aggression is met with a firm response, the less likely Moscow is to raise the stakes further.
“If aggression isn’t stopped right away, it becomes much harder to stop later. But if you respond very firmly right away, the Russians usually back down, as if nothing had happened,” says the reserve colonel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
At the same time, Svitán sees a problem in the willingness of certain European leaders to make quick and tough decisions in the face of escalation.
According to the expert, the Russian leadership may exploit its opponents’ indecisiveness and gradually increase pressure until it encounters serious resistance.
Thus, the scenario described by Svitán suggests that in the event of a deliberate escalation against NATO, Russia might initially rely on drones to test the Alliance’s reaction and only later consider the use of more powerful weapons. However, this is a forecast by a military expert, not a confirmed plan by the Russian leadership.