Is Putin Really Planning Something Crazy?
- 4.09.2026, 7:09
We are monitoring the Suwałki Corridor.
Russia may attempt to stage a provocation in the Baltic states or on the territory of other NATO countries to test the Alliance’s readiness for collective defense. This is according to British expert and former Conservative Party Member of Parliament Bob Seeley writing for Conservative.
This may not involve a full-scale invasion, but rather a hybrid operation involving Russian intelligence agencies and military units. Its main goal would be to drive a wedge between allies and attempt to call into question the validity of NATO’s Article 5.
“This will most likely be primarily a political war involving the use of violence, rather than a military operation per se,” writes Sili.
The expert considers the Suwalki Corridor region between Belarus and the Kaliningrad Oblast to be one possible target. In the event of a crisis, Moscow could try to create a situation in which the U.S. and European countries would argue over the need for a military response, while allies would begin to fear a direct war with Russia.
Sili also suggests the possibility of a provocation involving drones, which Moscow could pass off as a Ukrainian attack. Such a scenario, in his view, would allow the Kremlin to launch a limited strike against NATO territory while simultaneously creating a pretext for further escalation.
The expert sees a separate threat to the United Kingdom. Among possible targets, he cites acts of sabotage, assassinations, industrial facilities, and undersea internet cables.
At the same time, Russia continues to face serious problems on the front lines. Sili believes that Moscow may attempt to compensate for its slow advance with a new mobilization and massive missile strikes.
He considers a possible offensive through Belarus toward Kyiv to be particularly dangerous. “By all accounts, plans are already being drawn up,” the expert asserts.
According to his forecast, the coming months may bring intensified Russian attacks on Ukraine, and for Europe—new attempts by the Kremlin to test the limits of the West’s readiness to stand up to Moscow.