U.S. Intelligence Learned Of Iran's Plans
- 5.09.2026, 17:45
Tehran is preparing for an escalation.
Iran feels confident in its capabilities and, according to U.S. intelligence assessments, may escalate the conflict with the U.S. in the coming months. In Tehran, as reported by The New York Times, intends to prolong the standoff at least until the U.S. midterm elections, thereby exacerbating the political problems of President Donald Trump.
According to intelligence reports, after several months of hostilities, Iran has gained a better understanding of its military capabilities and believes it is capable of continuing to resist the U.S. In the coming weeks, Tehran may repeat the actions it took in July: attacking U.S. military bases and ships in the region, as well as infrastructure in Kuwait and other countries. At the same time, according to sources, in the short term, U.S. economic sanctions are likely to only fuel further escalation.
Earlier, The Wall Street Journal, citing Iranian and Arab officials, reported that Tehran was preparing to expand the conflict with the U.S. and Israel. According to the publication, the IRGC has tightened its control over the regular army, appointed veterans of the Iran-Iraq War to key positions, expanded counterintelligence operations, and accelerated the production of missiles and drones. In addition, Tehran is maintaining contacts with armed groups in Yemen and Iraq, preparing them for a possible escalation of the conflict, the newspaper’s sources noted. Among the possible scenarios, the WSJ cited sabotage of internet cables in the Persian Gulf and the destabilization of countries with Shia communities, including Kuwait and Bahrain.
A member of the U.S. House Intelligence Committee, Colorado Democrat Jason Crow, stated that the Iranian leadership has become more united and better understands how to use the Strait of Hormuz to put pressure on its opponents. Before the war, about one-fifth of the world’s oil passed through this waterway. “They always knew that the strait was an important bargaining chip, but now they have a greater understanding of the leverage it gives them,” Crow said.
Cyberattacks could become a separate avenue of pressure. U.S. officials claim that Iran-linked hackers were likely behind attacks on more than 100 water systems in the United States in late July. In some cases, the attacks caused disruptions that required manual intervention. The hackers also showed interest in oil and gas infrastructure, but it is unknown whether any energy systems were compromised.
According to U.S. intelligence, Iran is also counting on the difficulties U.S. forces are facing in launching new large-scale strikes due to dwindling ammunition supplies.