Two Different Pictures
- 8.09.2026, 12:36
How close is the Russian oil refining industry to a systemic crisis?
The gasoline shortage in Russia has become a nationwide issue, but the Russian Federation’s fuel system is still holding up. How much longer will its margin of safety last?
According to the latest estimates, the actual level of oil refining in Russia remains at about 3.8 million barrels per day. This is roughly 0.5 million barrels above the critical threshold of 3.3 million barrels per day—which, according to my calculations, represents the minimum demand of their market; it is precisely after this threshold is exceeded that a severe fuel crisis escalates into systemic economic and logistical problems.
But there is another, equally important sign: the gasoline shortage has long since gone beyond the confines of individual regions or local lines at gas stations. Today, gasoline production in Russia covers only about 70% of domestic demand. When a country with one of the world’s largest oil refining systems is unable to supply its own market, this is no longer a matter of lost refinery margins but a sign of a disruption in the normal functioning of the entire fuel system.
The situation with diesel fuel is better for now—there is no critical domestic shortage yet, although the decline in exports is already creating tension in the international market. And this is precisely the key point.
We are currently seeing two different scenarios:
Total refining volume has not yet fallen below the critical threshold.
The gasoline segment has, in fact, already entered a phase of systemic shortage.
A truly dangerous phase for the Russian economy will be triggered by the simultaneous occurrence of two conditions:
— a drop in actual refining volumes to 3.3 million barrels per day or lower;
— the emergence of a sustained shortage not only of gasoline but also of diesel fuel. Diesel, in particular, is of critical importance for freight transport, the agricultural sector, industry, construction, rail logistics, and the enemy’s military machinery.
Therefore, the main question now is not “How many Russian refineries have been hit?” but “How much oil is Russia actually capable of refining per day to sustain its economy?”
In terms of this metric, the situation for Russia continues to deteriorate.
In your opinion, will it take much longer to reduce the enemy’s refining capacity to the critical threshold of 3.3 million barrels?
Vladimir Omelchenko, “Facebook”