ISW: Russia Will Not Be Able To Adequately Defend Itself Against Ukrainian Attacks In The Near Future

• 21.08.2026, 8:23

Neither the Kremlin nor Russian military bloggers believe it will succeed.

Russia is unlikely to be able to completely repel Ukrainian attacks in the near future; neither the Kremlin nor Russian military bloggers believe this will succeed. This is according to analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have written about this, analyzing the effectiveness of Russian air defense.

As a result, Russian officials are increasingly shifting the burden of air defense to individual enterprises and regional authorities, but all of these entities are struggling to counter Ukrainian drones.

Russian military bloggers also openly acknowledge the Russian Federation’s problems in countering Ukrainian strikes.

For example, one blogger acknowledged that Russia is unable to completely intercept Ukrainian long-range drones and that passive defenses—including anti-drone nets, shelters, and infrastructure redundancy—are necessary to protect industrial facilities. At the same time, the bloggers are calling for a multi-layered approach that includes adapting air defense systems and defensive infrastructure.

At the same time, ISW analysts believe that Russia will be unable to adequately meet its growing air defense needs through its own defense industry and will be unable to ensure the protection of both the front lines and its vast rear areas.

“The multi-tiered and decentralized approach proposed by Russian officials and military bloggers will require significant time and resources and is unlikely to meet Russia’s air defense needs or overcome geographical limitations,” the analysts note.

At the same time, defensive fortifications around key industrial and commercial facilities throughout Russia will also undermine the Kremlin’s ability to create a sense of normalcy among the Russian public.